NextGen Bar Exam Pass Rates: What to Expect in 2026

March 13, 2026

Nobody knows what the NextGen Bar Exam pass rate will be. That's the honest answer, and anyone telling you otherwise is speculating. But we can make informed predictions based on historical UBE data, the NCBE's institutional incentives, and the mechanics of criterion-referenced scoring. Here's what the data actually suggests.

Historical UBE Pass Rates: The Baseline

The national first-time UBE pass rate has hovered between 55% and 65% over the past decade, depending on the jurisdiction and the year. The July administration consistently outperforms the February one — July 2024 saw a national first-time pass rate around 62%, while February 2024 was closer to 48%. The gap exists because July test-takers are primarily recent graduates with fresh preparation, while February test-takers include more repeat candidates and career-changers.

State-by-state variation is enormous. Jurisdictions like Missouri and Oregon (both Wave 1 NextGen adopters) have historically posted first-time pass rates in the 75–85% range. New York and California historically sit in the 60–65% range for first-time takers. California is an outlier at the bottom — its bar exam is notoriously difficult, with overall pass rates regularly below 55%.

These numbers matter because the NextGen's passing standard will be calibrated against them. The NCBE isn't designing an exam to fail everyone — they're designing an exam to measure minimum competence, with pass rates that jurisdictions find acceptable.

Why the First NextGen Pass Rate Will Probably Be Higher Than You Think

Here's my contrarian read: the July 2026 NextGen pass rate will likely match or exceed historical UBE averages, not fall below them. Three reasons:

1. The NCBE cannot afford a PR disaster. The NextGen is the biggest change to bar licensing in 40 years. If the first administration produces a pass rate 10 points below historical norms, the political backlash would be severe. Jurisdictions that haven't yet committed would reconsider. Bar associations would face pressure from law schools, students, and legal employers. The NCBE has every institutional reason to set the passing standard conservatively for the inaugural administration.

2. Criterion-referenced scoring gives them a dial. Unlike the norm-referenced MBE, where your score was relative to other test-takers, the NextGen measures against an absolute competency standard. The NCBE sets that standard. If preliminary scoring data suggests pass rates will be historically low, they can adjust the passing threshold. This isn't gaming the system — it's calibrating a new instrument, which always requires adjustment on the first real administration.

3. Wave 1 jurisdictions are favorable. The 10 jurisdictions going first in July 2026 include states like Idaho, Oregon, and Washington — jurisdictions with historically above-average pass rates. This isn't an accident. The NCBE partnered with states that were confident in their candidate pools. Wave 1 pass rates will likely look good partly because the candidate pool is strong.

The Counter-Argument: Why Rates Could Drop

The optimistic case isn't guaranteed. Several factors push the other direction:

IQS unfamiliarity. The Integrated Question Set format is genuinely new. Candidates who prepared using only UBE-style materials and didn't practice IQS will underperform on ~30% of the exam. If a significant portion of the July 2026 cohort under-prepares for the new format, it drags the average down.
Bar prep companies are still adapting. The major bar prep courses (Barbri, Themis, Kaplan) are retrofitting their UBE curriculum, but their NextGen-specific materials — especially IQS practice — are thin. Candidates paying $3,000+ may not be getting NextGen-optimized preparation.
Format switching adds cognitive load. The UBE let you mentally settle into one question type for hours. The NextGen's blended format — MCQs, IQS, and performance tasks within the same session — creates constant context-switching. Some candidates will struggle with this regardless of their doctrinal knowledge.

What Criterion-Referenced Scoring Actually Means for You

Here's the most misunderstood aspect of the new scoring system. On the UBE, your MBE score was curved against other test-takers. If you were well-prepared but took the exam alongside an unusually strong cohort, your score could be lower. If the exam was particularly hard, the curve could rescue you.

The NextGen eliminates both of those dynamics. Your score on the 500–750 scale reflects your performance against a fixed competency standard, regardless of how other candidates perform. In theory, every candidate could pass. In theory, every candidate could fail. Your score is entirely determined by your own preparation and performance.

The practical implication: you can't rely on a favorable curve. But you also can't be dragged down by a strong cohort. Your preparation quality is the only variable that matters. For candidates who put in serious, focused study time, this is genuinely good news.

The First-Attempt vs. Repeat-Taker Gap Will Widen

One prediction I'm fairly confident about: the gap between first-time pass rates and repeat-taker pass rates will be larger on the NextGen than it was on the UBE.

On the UBE, repeat takers could focus on memorizing more rules and drilling more MCQs — a fairly linear path to improvement. The NextGen's emphasis on IQS and integrated performance tasks rewards skills (reading speed, cross-subject synthesis, written analysis under pressure) that are harder to improve between attempts. A candidate who failed because of IQS struggles can't fix that by memorizing more flashcards.

The historical repeat-taker pass rate on the UBE is around 27–30% nationally. On the NextGen, I expect it to be closer to 20–25% unless candidates fundamentally change their study approach between attempts.

What This Means for Your Preparation

Pass rate speculation is interesting but shouldn't drive your study strategy. What should drive it:

The format change matters more than the difficulty level. Whether the pass rate is 60% or 70%, the candidates who fail will disproportionately be those who under-prepared for IQS and the select-2-of-6 format. Allocate your study time to match the actual exam weighting.
Don't count on a generous curve. Criterion-referenced scoring means your preparation level directly determines your outcome. Study as if the passing standard is firm.
First-time is your best shot. If the repeat-taker gap widens as expected, passing on your first attempt matters more than ever. Invest the time now.

Start with our readiness quiz to see where you stand across all eight subjects. Then read our study guide for a subject-by-subject preparation plan.

FAQ

What was the UBE pass rate in 2024?

The national first-time pass rate for July 2024 was approximately 62%. February 2024 was approximately 48%. These rates vary significantly by jurisdiction — some states exceed 80% first-time, while others fall below 55%.

Will the NextGen pass rate be published?

Yes. Jurisdictions publish pass rates after each administration, typically 2–3 months after the exam. The first NextGen pass rates will be available around September–October 2026 for the July 2026 administration.

Can the NCBE adjust the passing standard after the exam?

The NCBE sets the scoring methodology and recommends a passing standard, but each jurisdiction sets its own pass point on the 500–750 scale. In practice, the NCBE's calibration of the competency standard before the exam is the main lever — individual jurisdictions can adjust their local pass point if they believe the results don't reflect appropriate competency levels.

Is the NextGen harder than the UBE?

It tests differently, not necessarily harder. The UBE was a memorization marathon (14 subjects, 200 standalone MCQs). The NextGen is an analytical challenge (8 subjects, mixed formats including IQS and performance tasks). Read our full comparison for the detailed breakdown.

Should I wait until later waves to take the NextGen?

Not necessarily. The first administration may benefit from conservative calibration by the NCBE. Later waves face a more refined exam and, starting July 2028, a ninth subject (Family Law). There's no clear advantage to waiting if your jurisdiction is in Wave 1 or 2.

What if I fail the NextGen — can I retake it?

Yes. Most jurisdictions allow candidates to retake the exam, typically at the next administration. The retake policies (waiting periods, attempt limits) are set by each jurisdiction and generally mirror their existing UBE retake policies.